a day ago
Russia deal will be 'a canary for the markets' on US–China talks
The deadline for the US and China to reach a trade deal is Tuesday, but the market is widely expecting an extension for the trading partners to iron out the details. US President Trump is also set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday.
Pangaea Policy founder Terry Haines says that what comes out of Trump and Putin's meeting will be a signal of what's to come in US–China talks.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts.
Well, and there's one more big wait and see that we're waiting for, and that's a deal with China, right, Terry? So, you know, the deadline is tomorrow. The indications, all the indications was that it was going to be pushed back again, and yet, we haven't heard a peep on that front. So what's going on?
Well, I think it's very likely that it gets pushed back, Julie, but not for the, not, not for any trade related reasons. Uh, you have to remember that, you know, the Beasant mantra before about geopolitics being US economic policy. Uh, what the United States wants at the end of this week is forward progress, uh, if not an actual deal on ending the Ukraine war. Uh, Russia is a client state of China at this point. And the last thing that Trump's going to want to do, if he thinks he can make forward progress on a Russia deal, is uh, slap a bunch of tariffs, higher tariffs, uh, on China this week. Uh, so I think that that doesn't happen. But what I would say to you also is that the, the success or failure of the Russian deals, or the Russian deal at the end of this week, is the canary for the markets about whether US-China talks succeed at all. Uh, if, if Russia moves, it's a sign that China's told it to move and that China may, may be more likely to reach some rapprochement with the United States on trade related issues. Uh, if Russia becomes recalcitrant and back slides, then you get a situation where China's decided to be tougher across the board, which is worse for a United States-China trade deal.
